Tue Jan 25th 2022

10 Players I'm Losing Hope In

One of the things I like to do this time of year is speculate on players whose dynasty value is uncertain or at a volatile point in time. These mainly include younger players who have yet to produce many fantasy points but were thought to be excellent prospects in their rookie class. They also include players who have had spikes of fantasy production early in their career but have seen their dynasty value fall since that time. These are the players that dynasty managers have to make decisions about. They have to answer the questions, "Am I holding out hope?" or "Am I losing hope."

At this time of the offseason, I like to decide which players I am holding out hope for and which players I am losing hope in. Once I've decided, I make trade offers for these types of players. I offer the ones I am losing hope in for the players I am holding out hope for. Since such players' dynasty values are so uncertain, it's not hard to find a manager who still has hope in a player I have lost hope in or vice versa.

This article presents ten players I am losing hope in and would like to trade for players I am holding out hope for. Next week I'll write about the ten players I am holding out hope for.

Baker Mayfield

• Mayfield's dynasty value peaked after his first season in the NFL, and it's been falling ever since, as it should since his fantasy production has dropped off since his rookie year. He averaged 20 points per game his rookie season and has averaged 17, 18, and 15 points per game the three seasons since. While his mediocre fantasy production is partly because Cleveland has a run-first offensive scheme and lack of weapons, his dwindling dynasty value has far more to do with his level of play than his team's scheme or personnel. I've lost hope in Mayfield and would look to trade him for other quarterbacks with uncertain dynasty value like Tua Tagovailoa and Daniel Jones, whom I'm holding out hope for.

Carson Wentz

• Wentz's dynasty value peaked after his second season when he averaged 24 points per game before getting injured and missing the Eagles' Super Bowl-winning season. He's averaged 20, 20, 19, and 18 points per game in the four seasons since his second year. His inability to lead his team to a win over Jacksonville to get into the NFL playoffs put him in danger of losing his starting role with the Colts next year and has caused me to lose hope in his ability to be a significant contributor on dynasty rosters. I've lost hope in Wentz and would look to trade him for other quarterbacks with uncertain dynasty value like Tua Tagovailoa and Daniel Jones, whom I'm holding out hope for.

Zack Moss

• Both of Buffalo's third-round draft picks' (Zack Moss and Devin Singletary) dynasty value hung in the balance this season, and one has rocketed up while the other has fallen. Moss's dynasty value peaked during weeks two through six of this season when he appeared to steal Buffalo's leading role and shot yardage role ahead of Devin Singletary. He scored four touchdowns in that span, was involved in the passing game, and out-snapped Singletary by 27 snaps. His dynasty value fell as the season progressed, and Singletary took the leading running back role back in convincing fashion. Singletary scored more points in the last five games (including the playoff game) than Moss scored all year. Like me, most dynasty managers have lost hope in Moss, so he'll be more challenging to trade than other players on this list. I'd look to trade him to the teams that have Singletary on their roster or to secure a handcuff back of my own. 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

• I want to say I've lost hope in CEH, but it's more accurate to say that I never had hope in him, especially compared to other dynasty analysts and managers in my leagues. CEH was routinely drafted ahead of Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, DeAndre Swift, and Cam Akers in 2020 rookies drafts, while I had all four of these players ranked ahead of CEH, who was my 10th ranked player in that rookie class. CEH has battled injuries this season, but Darrel Williams has looked better than CEH, whether he was healthy or not this season. What hope I ever had for CEH has now been lost, but I know some dynasty managers still believe in him. Because I ranked CEH so low in his rookie class, I do not have him on any of my teams, but if I did, I'd look to trade him for another volatile running back like Saquon Barkley.

Sterling Shepard

• Shepard is one of my most rostered players, but his lack of production, inability to stay healthy, and his late season-ending Achilles injury have caused me to lose hope in him. When healthy, Shepard was a fantastic starter in PPR leagues because he averaged 6-7 catches per game throughout his career. I loved having him as a WR-3 or 4 on my rosters because I could bank on 10-15 PPR points per game from him, but I think those days have come to an end. Shepard will be tough to trade, but if Cam Akers continues to prove in the playoffs that someone can return successfully from an Achilles injury, some dynasty managers may hold out hope for him. If so, I'd love to offer him for some of the young and unproductive players I am holding out hope for, like Dyami Brown or Josh Palmer, but that's likely too high of a price given their age differences. It may be more fitting to trade him for one of the other receivers on this list and then hope to trade him for more.

Jalen Reagor

• Reagor is one of my biggest rookie misses in a while. I'm finally willing to give up on him after two years of hope after his second year was even worse than his awful rookie season. Quez Watkins passed Reagor in snap counts and touches by the end of the season, making Reagor a WR-3 on his NFL and a droppable player from dynasty rosters. That said, there are always managers who hope for the third-year breakout from Reagor. I want to find a manager who has such hope and offer Reagor for guys on my "holding out hope for" list like Dyami Brown and Josh Palmer.

D.J. Chark

• Chark's dynasty value peaked after his breakout second season when he had 1008 yards receiving and eight touchdowns on only 72 catches. His dynasty value fell the following season when he only produced 67% of the fantasy points from the previous season. His dynasty value rose a bit once Jacksonville drafted Trevor Lawrence and had some chemistry to the first three games of the season before he injured his ankle and missed the rest of the 2021 season. There's not much to go on when determining Chark's dynasty value since he missed so much of this season as a free agent. I could change my mind once another team signs him, but for now, I have lost hope in Chark and his dynasty value. I think his fantasy production is too tied to big plays, and he's not going to land with a team that will target him enough. I want to trade him for other 2022 free agent wide receivers who I think could win better roles with their news teams like Michael Gallup or Christian Kirk.

Parris Campbell

• Campbell was a second-round pick by the Colts in 2019, and the high point of his dynasty value was during rookie drafts that season when he was drafted in the first round of most rookie drafts. His dynasty value has fallen every year since because he has not been on the field enough. He played in just five games last season and only two games his rookie season. He hasn't been cut from dynasty rosters, but he's undoubtedly one of the volatile players dynasty managers are have to decide about. As for me, I've lost hope for him even though there is a lot of room in the Colts' wide receiver depth chart. Zach Pascal and Ashton Dulin played well enough this season for me to believe Campbell has a lot to overcome next season. Pascal out-snapped Campbell in the five games they played together at the start of the season, and the Colts like what they have in Dulin, who is the same age and a little bigger target than Campbell. Campbell is a very tradable player because far more managers still have more hope for him than I do.

Bryan Edwards

• Like Jalen Reagor, Edwards is one of my biggest 2020 rookie class busts. I had Edwards as my 14th ranked rookie in that class, but he has not lived up to my hype. I gave him an injury pass for his rookie season, but this season every possible door to fantasy production was wide open for him, but he could not capitalize on it. He was healthy and in the starting lineup on a team that played surprisingly well on offense this season. Darren Waller was injured for much of the season, and Henry Ruggs was removed from the team midseason. Even so, Edwards ended the season with just 34 catches and three touchdowns. I've given up on Edwards and hope to find someone who believes in him more than I do. This week, I'll make offers for guys I have hope for that are in the same dynasty tier as Edwards is currently.

David Njoku

• Njoku never lived up to his talent level or the draft capital dynasty managers spent on him in the 2017 rookie class. His dynasty value arguably was at its peak during that rookie draft, if not during his second season, when he showed chemistry with Baker Mayfield during his excellent rookie season. Since that time, however, Njoku has been injured or has to compete with Austin Hooper (a free agent the Browns signed to compete with Njoku) or Harrison Bryant (a player the Brown drafted to compete with Njoku). Those moves by the Browns told me all I need to know about whether to hold out hope for Njoku. Because it's a onesie position, Njoku was dropped from dynasty rosters and on the waiver wire in many of my leagues, but he'd always get picked up, so I know there are still believers in Njoku. Njoku would be hard to trade now, but if the Browns cut Hooper and sign him to a new contract or he signs with another team in free agency, I would look to trade Njoku for another disappointing and injured tight end on my "holding out hope" list like Irv Smith Jr. 

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