Tue Mar 15th 2022

NFL Trades and Franchise Tags

The start of the NFL new year is tomorrow, Wednesday, March 16th, which means free agents can sign with new teams this week. Free agency season is always a roller coaster for dynasty managers as the free agents' dynasty value drops or spikes depending on which teams sign them. Not only that, the dynasty value of players on the teams they left and the teams they signed with are affected. The start of the new year is a great part of the season for Dynasty Freeks. It's going to be a fun week.

Before the new year starts, teams can make trades, re-sign their own players, and place franchise tags on players. Last week was one of the wildest weeks of NFL trades, and plenty of players were given the franchise tag to prevent them from reaching free agency. Before the hectic week of free agency gets underway, I thought I'd share some of my thoughts on the moves NFL teams made before the start of the new year.

Tom Brady and Chris Godwin

• Brady's stunning announcement that he's returning to Tampa Bay boosted the value of all the Buccaneers, who would have taken a significant value hit if Kyle Trask was their week-one starter. This year will almost certainly be Brady's last season since he said all along that he wanted to play until he was 45 years old. For one more year, Brady buoys the value of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who received the franchise tag from the team. The only question now is if Brady's return will lead the team to Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette to make deals with the team to make one more Super Bowl run or not. Fournette could get a better financial deal with another team, but I don't think he could be more productive with a Brady-less team. Gronk and Brady are on their last leg again from a dynasty perspective, but if Gronk re-signs to play with Brady, the two of them could carry dynasty teams to championships like they did last year. 

Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams

• Rodgers signed a new deal to stay in Green Bay, and Adams was given the franchise tag by the team, too. These transactions are good news for Packers fans and dynasty managers who have Rodgers and Adams on their roster. I could not imagine a scenario where either player could be more productive on a team other than the Packers, especially when they have each other. Hopefully, the Packers used the franchise tag to buy time while they work to sign Adams to a long-term deal. With all the teams in the NFC North in transition and rebuilding, the Packers should dominate their division while padding their fantasy stats along the way. Their staying in Green Bay also bodes well for dynasty stock of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. The Packers need to address the wide receiver position in the draft or free agency because Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are free agents, but no matter who they draft or sign, Adams will dominate the target share he always does.

Russell Wilson, Drew Lock, and Noah Fant

• Last week's trade of Russell Wilson to the Broncos was the biggest bombshell of the offseason. The trade radically affected the dynasty stock of Broncos and Seahawk players. In my opinion, Wilson's value remains about the same. I like the wide receiver combo of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett slightly more than Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, but if Denver allows Wilson to pass the ball and run more plays per game than Seattle, he should score more fantasy points than he did in Seattle over the last few years. It's stock up for every Denver offensive player, including Albert Okwuegbuam, because there will be far more yards and scoring opportunities with Wilson leading the team. It's just the opposite with Seattle players. Metcalf is too talented and young to see his dynasty value drop much, but Lockett and Fant will move down in my rankings, as will Chris Carson. It remains to be seen if Seattle plans to start Lock or seek a quarterback in the draft or free agency. Until we know, Lock's dynasty value increases significantly, but it will drop just as fast if they add a quarterback in the draft or free agency.

Carson Wentz

• Wentz was traded to the Commanders a few days after they lost out on the Russell Wilson sweepstakes. Wentz is a pretty bad second prize, but he's bound to give the team more hope than Taylor Heinicke. Wentz has fallen out of favor with two NFL teams now, and that does not speak well of his character or dynasty value. This trade has little affect on his already fading dynasty stock, and it really did not change my thoughts on the dynasty value of and of the Commanders' offensive weapons.  I think it slightly helps the value of Terry McLaurin but only the slightest amount.  Everyone else stays about where I already had them in my dynasty rankings.  As for the Colts affected by this trade, however, the open sport at quarterback is a major concern.  I'm certain that the Colts will address quarterback in free agency and possibly in the draft too.  I don't think Sam Elinger is who they intend to start next year.  For now, I have the dynasty value of Colts pass catchers in a holding pattern until I see which quarterback they add to their team.  If they sign Jameis Winston or trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, I'd see the Colts and their offensive weapons benefiting from the change.  If they draft a rookie, however, their dynasty value would take an immediate hit but be more hopeful in the long run.

Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup

• Cooper was traded to the Browns to give the Cowboys salary-cap relief, affecting some players positively and negatively. This trade is not helpful for Cooper's dynasty value. He'll be the best receiver on the Browns, but on a team whose offensive system has not made any wide receivers more productive than they were on their previous teams, like Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. That's why Copper's signing does not change how I value Baker Mayfield either. The Cowboys' players are affected most by this trade. CeeDee Lamb's value gets a bump since he'll be the clear WR-1 now in Dallas, and Michael Gallup's value rises significantly, too, after signing his new deal with Dallas. Dak Prescott's value does not change too much, especially after re-signing Gallup, but losing a player with Cooper's talent does cause his dynasty value to drop slightly.

Mike Williams

• Mike Williams did what was best for his dynasty value by staying in L.A. with Justin Herbert. I don't think he can repeat what he did last year, especially at the start of the season, but he's established a specific role on the team as their deep threat and big-play maker. When the Chargers drafted Josh Palmer in the third round last year, I thought that was an indication that they planned to let Williams go after this season. After he signed last week, I had to admit I was wrong on that count, and all of the Josh Palmer shares dropped in value, which made me sad. As for my Justin Herbert shares, he did not have much room to move up in my rankings because he's already so high, but Williams makes Herbert even better.

Calvin Ridley

• Besides the Russell Wilson trade, Ridley's one-year suspension for gambling on NFL games was the most significant news last week. Ridley's dynasty value was already in limbo based on the mental issues that caused him to step away from the game last year. Now his dynasty value is even more in question. Most of the sub-par Atlanta wide receivers are free agents, so the entire Falcons passing game is a mystery right now. The Falcons are a favorite to draft a wide receiver in the first round now. They'll have to base their passing game around Kyle Pitts and whichever wide receiver they draft or be aggressive in free agency. Kyle Pitts' dynasty value could not be any higher, and Matt Ryan's dynasty value has faded enough that the Ridley news does not affect him too much either. Ridley managers will have a tough time trading him at this point, so I think it's better just to sit on him and hope he can play again in 2023.

Josh Reynolds

• Surprisingly, Josh Reynolds signed a new two-year deal with the Lions. By the end of the season last year, he was fantasy relevant for the first time in his career. Detriot has a young WR-1 with Amon-Ra St. Brown, and I assumed they would be a team looking to draft another wide receiver in this year's draft, but re-signing Reynolds makes me think they may wait until the third round to draft a wideout like they did with St. Brown last year. I've always liked Reynolds more than more dynasty managers and analysts, and I hope he gets a chance to become the Lions' starter next season like he was at the end of last season.

Dalton Schultz

• Dallas placed the franchise tag on Schultz, cut Blake Jarwin, and traded Amari Cooper. The Cowboys like what they have in Schultz and believe his fourth-year breakout was not a fluke. He finished as the fourth-highest scoring fantasy tight end last year and should find himself in the top-12 in the years to come. This tag is excellent news for the value of Dak Prescott, who loves to target Schultz and needed the Cowboys to retain him, especially after they traded Amari Cooper. Schultz is bound to improve on his already career-high 104 targets last season.

Mike Gesicki

• Gesicki also received the franchise tag from the Dolphins, and I think this was the best thing for his dynasty value. He can build upon his second-year rapport with Tua Tagovailoa and become a big part of the new offensive system installed by Mike McDaniel. His stay with the team helps Tua's dynasty value by giving him a reliable tight end among his other top weapons, Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker.

David Njoku

• Unlike Schultz and Gesicki, I wanted to see Njoku sign with another team and would have moved him up my rankings if he had. Cleveland targeted tight ends more than any NFL team last year, but the problem is that they have too many tight ends and use all of them. Last season, Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant played 65% and 36% of Cleveland snaps compared to Njoku's 61%. I wanted to Njoku on a team where he'd get the chance to be the every-down starter. Plus, I wanted Harrison to get more snaps in Cleveland and see his dynasty value rise. Now he and Njoku, the younger guys, and all stuck in the back end of my tight end rankings, along with the older Austin Hooper. 

Zach Ertz

• Ertz was re-signed by the Cardinals, which is the best thing for him and his dynasty value. The Cardinals often targeted him after buying him in a trade with the Eagles. The team had a clear plan for using him and targeted him more than seven times per game last season. Christian Kirk is leaving the team in free agency, making room for Ertz to be even more involved in the offense. Money speaks, and they spent money on Ertz instead of Kirk. After Ertz's dynasty value dropped significantly over the last season and a half with the Eagle, he's risen back to a top-12 dynasty tight end again, even at 31 years old.

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