Tue Mar 29th 2022

Free Agent Frenzy Week Two

Week two of NFL free agency did not disappoint. It was as wild as week one, making the last two weeks the wildest offseason weeks in NFL history. More quarterbacks were traded or signed to lead new teams, including the first and second picks in the 2015 NFL draft. Two first-round running backs re-signed with their teams after showing promise last season. The Packers gained and lost a player after losing Davante Adams last week, and a top-tier dynasty receiver was traded, just like Adams was the previous week.

Week two of the NFL new year was as wild as week one, and players' dynasty values were shaken up again this week. Here are some of my thoughts on last week's transactions and their implications for dynasty rosters.

Matt Ryan

• Ryan was traded to the Colts, giving him a chance to play for a contender instead of a rebuilding team in Atlanta. This trade instantly made the dynasty value of Colts pass-catchers increase. Unlike Carson Wentz last season, Ryan can unlock the fantasy production of Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, and Mo Alie-Cox. I would not be surprised to see the Colts draft a wide receiver or tight end, but for now, Ashton Dulin and Kylen Granson are valuable prospects to pick up off the waiver wire after this trade. I already had Dulin rostered in most of my leagues after his playing time and performance increased steadily at the end of last season, and the Colts tendered him before free agency. I still like Alie-Cox over Granson, but Granson could be the best tight end to roster in Indianapolis. I'm excited to see what Ryan can do with a change of scenery after so many years in Atlanta. I think he'll make the team much better than Phillip Rivers and Carson Wentz did the last two years.

Marcus Mariota

• Ryan's departure left a void in Atlanta, which they quickly filled with Marcus Mariota. Like Mitch Trubisky last week, Mariota's dynasty resurrected from the dead. As I wrote last week about Trubisky, I suspect the Falcons will draft a quarterback in the NFL draft. I think the Mariota dynasty value spike may be short-lived. I was offered Mariota for a 2023 second-round pick in one league and declined it because I am not willing to be on his chance to become a franchise quarterback. However, another team in that league agreed to the same trade, so others believed he could revive his career. As for the pass-catchers in Atlanta, this signing is a significant downgrade to their dynasty value. That said, what pass-catchers in Atlanta have any dynasty value other than Kyle Pitts? At his age and talent level, it's hard to move him too far down tight end dynasty rankings, but I have enough concern to drop him down a bit when it comes to when I'd be willing to draft him in start-up drafts. 

Jameis Winston

• Winston signed a two-year deal with the Saints, which I hoped for and why I have so many shares of Winston on my teams. Unlike his draft-class mate, Mariota, I believe he can revive his dynasty value and revive the dynasty value of Micahel Thomas and the offseason-pending value of Alvin Kamara. Winston can never bring his teammates' dynasty values up to the level they had under Drew Brees, but things could have been much worse for Saints' players if Winston signed with another team. Winston has a college and pro track record of targeting tight ends, so I'm excited to see what this signing will mean for Adam Trautman, who I believe is poised for a breakout season. Before his season-ending injury last year, he was the quarterback that elevated the dynasty value of Marquez Callaway, so there's good reason to believe that Callaway's dynasty value will increase this season, even with Michael Thomas back as the WR-1.

Leonard Fournette

• Tampa Bay is bringing the whole band back together again after signing Fournette to a three-year deal. This deal is the very best landing spot for Fournette, and his dynasty bounceback will continue for the life of this new contract. Fournette seems to play better for a team that proves that they want him, unlike the coaching staff in Jacksonville who spurned him last offseason. With Thomas Jones likely to sign with another team, Fournette should see an even bigger piece of the pie during the life of this contract. That said, his value is tied closely to the offense's effectiveness under Tom Brady, who may retire after this season. Brady's presence on the team is what floats Fournette's dynasty stock, so his dynasty value is more volatile. I suspect he'll be a player that contenders buy and rebuilders sell nearing the playoff run next season. If I were a contender, I'd be eager to buy him, and if I were a rebuilder, I'd be eager to sell him.

Rashaad Penny

• Penny re-signed with the Seahawks under a one-year prove-it deal. His excellent finish to the end of last season caused the Seahawks to take one more look at their first-round draft pick that has thus far been a bust. After a rough start to his career due to poor play and injuries, Penny struggled with his mental health. Last season, Penny shared how his mental health work led him to play better at the end of his fourth NFL season. It's a small part of the story, but I buy into it in this case. I'm glad Penny stayed in Seattle with a team who knows about his struggles and showed their faith in him. I believe he'll be in a timeshare with Chris Carson, but I think the script will switch this year, and Penny will become the lead back. If Penny proves himself this year, Seattle will be glad to sign him to a more extended contract, and Penny will be happy to sign with the team that believed in him. Penny is a player I'll make trade offers for this week to see if I find someone who thinks differently about him.

Jeff Wilson

• This signing was one of the less talked about last week, but I am intrigued by what it communicated about the 49ers' thoughts about Trey Sermon, the presumed backup to Elijah Mitchell. The 49ers let Raheem Mostert go in free agency, but they re-signed Wilson and JaMycal Hasty. I believe the RB-2 position in San Francisco is up for grabs and would not be surprised at all if Wilson wins the job. Coach Shanahan does not care about draft capital, so he's willing to start Wilson over Sermon just as he was Mitchell over Sermon last season. Wilson has had dominant fantasy games in the few chances he's had to start for the 49ers. If Mitchell gets injured, Wilson could do so again this season. This week, I'd love to trade one of my backup running backs for Wilson, especially if I could offer someone a handcuff for one of their players.

Tyreek Hill

• I waited this long to get to the biggest deal last week. Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami in a dynasty-like blockbuster trade. Unfortunately for dynasty managers, this trade damaged the dynasty value of every player on the Dolphins and Chiefs except for Tua Tagovailoa. Patrick Mahomes loses a top target, and Travis Kelce loses a player that draws attention away from him. Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki will lose targets with Hill on the team, and DeVante Parker is not a prime candidate to get traded. Hill's dynasty value falls because he's on a less productive team with an inferior quarterback. It's a make-it-or-break-it year for Tua, who now has one of the most talented pass-catching corps around him. I am very confident that he will prove himself capable next year and see his dynasty stock rise even higher than it has after the bump his stock received after this trade. I love this trade as an NFL fan, especially for Miami, and to see what Kansas City does in the NFL draft to improve their team, but I'm not too fond of it as a dynasty manager with players on these teams.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS)

• MVS spurned Green Bay by signing with the Chiefs in their attempt to get some of Tyreek Hill's speed back on their team. I would have preferred to see MVS sign in Green Bay, where his rapport with Aaron Rodgers could have held his dynasty value, but Kansas City without Tyreek Hill is not a bad situation for him. I'm sure that the Chiefs will use the picks acquired from the Dolphins in the Hill trade to draft a wide receiver, maybe even two. If so, the future WR-1 in Kansas City may be a player they draft. I did not mention him above when discussing the Hill trade, but JuJu Smith Schuster's dynasty value, like Tua's, did spike after the Hill trade since he's the presumed WR-1 for the time being. However, I think he could quickly get surpassed by a wide receiver the Chiefs select in this year's draft. I see Juju and MVS as sell candidates right now, especially since there are managers who see them as buy candidates instead.

Robert Tonyan

• Tonyan fell off the mental map of most dynasty managers after a slow start to the 2021 season and a season-ending injury after week eight. Rodgers boosted his dynasty stock in 2020 by throwing 11 regular-season touchdown passes to him and one more in the postseason. In 2020, Tonyan caught a touchdown on 21% of his catches. Savvy dynasty managers knew that was unsustainable, so they did not move him too high up their rankings, and last year's slow start to the season confirmed their expectations. However, the missing targets in Green Bay after the Adams trade make me interested in Tonyan again, especially after they quickly signed him to a new contract after Adams left, even though it was just a one-year deal. Rodgers has his favorites, and Tonyan was one of them when he was healthy. This year, Green Bay should draft a wide receiver in the first round of the NFL draft, but they're a very stubborn team with a history of waiting to draft wide receivers later in the draft. It will be interesting to see if they will stick with that game plan this year. Either way, Tonyan is a tight end worth rostering to see how the season starts. I picked him up off the waiver wire last week after the Adams trade and just before he re-signed with the team. His only chance to regain dynasty value is in Green Bay with Rodgers, and I think he will, making him a streamable tight end on dynasty rosters. 

Gerald Everett

• Everett signed a two-year deal with the Chargers after spending just one season in Seattle. While I love the move for the Chargers, I'm less excited about the chance that Everett's dynasty value improves with the team. He's paired with a terrific quarterback and offense, but there are too many mouths to feed in L.A. Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams will be Justin Herbert's top targets, leaving little room for Everett to contribute consistently. I believe Everett will have some great fantasy games, but they will be difficult to predict. As a rule, I prefer to have tight ends that are highly targeted or red-zone targets. Everett will not be targeted enough, and Donald Parham is a much better red-zone threat because of his size. I would not be surprised to see Parham end the season with more touchdowns than Everett, though Everett will have more receptions and yards. Everett's athleticism between the 20s will force defenses to pay attention to him, which opens things up more for Allen, Ekeler, and Williams, which is excellent for their upside. 

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