Tue Mar 28th 2023

Free Agent Frenzy #2

As expected, week two in free agency was less exciting than the first week, but a few players' changing teams shook up the dynasty value of players. Plus, there was an exciting trade. The sad theme of this week was the one-year contracts given to running backs who aren't getting the contracts they once did on the open market.

Here are my thoughts on some players who changed teams last week.

Gardner Minshew - Colts

• Minshew signed with Indianapolis, where he has an excellent chance to become their starter. The Colts will likely draft a quarterback in the first round, but they may give the rookie time to develop under Minshew. Anthony Richardson and Will Levis are the quarterbacks most likely to be available for Indianapolis to draft, and both could use the time to develop in the NFL, especially Richardson. Minshew can't play much worse than the string of below-average quarterbacks the Colts have started the last few years, so he should keep the dynasty value of his pass catchers afloat while the team hopes a rookie quarterback can eventually cause the offense to improve strongly. Managers who have Minshew in superflex leagues are pleased to have an additional starter for at least the start of next season.

Marcus Mariota - Eagles

• Mariota signed with Philadelphia to back up Jalen Hurts. The Eagles found a quarterback with some of the same unique abilities as Hurts, albeit not nearly to the same degree. Mariota could be effective if forced to play due to a Hurts injury. He could come close to Hurts as a runner but would certainly downgrade the passing attack if he plays like he did last year in Atlanta. Mariota, once the second pick in the draft, has accepted his new role as a backup, settling his dynasty value among the top tier of backups.

Damien Harris - Bills

• I've always been higher on Harris than most dynasty managers and analysts, so it's no surprise that I think Harris is the best running back the Bills have had on their roster in the Josh Allen era. I believe Harris's dynasty value will rise after this signing, even though I have concerns about Josh Allen's impact on running backs, especially in the red zone. Allen takes away a lot of red zone touchdowns on the ground and in the air. As Allen ages, the team will try to involve running backs more in the offense overall and in the red zone. Signing Harris may be an indication that they want to do so. Dynasty managers who hoped James Cook would be the RB-1 for the Bills next year are disappointed with the Harris signing, and Cook's dynasty stock falls quite a little as a result, but not too far since Harris only signed a one-year deal. He's undoubtedly the player most impacted by this move. I'm excited to see what Harris can do and am hopeful they will use him more than the Patriots ever did.

Devin Singletary - Texans

• Singletary signed with the Texans, much to the frustration of Dameon Pierce's dynasty managers, though he only signed a one-year deal. Pierce will maintain his role as the RB-1, but Singletary will cut into his workload far more than Rex Burkhead and others did last year. He has to because he's far better than the backs that played behind Pierce last season. This move helps the Texans, but it hurts the dynasty value of Pierce and Singletary. In the only league where I have Singletary, I instantly offered him to the Pierce manager for a third-round pick. The inactive owner has yet to respond to the offer.

D'onta Foreman - Bears

• Foreman signed with the Bears in the first week of free agency, but I forgot to write about that transaction last week. He, too, signed a one-year deal to compete with Khalil Herbert, whose managers were hopeful he'd have no competition after David Montgomery signed with the Lions. It still's Herbert's job to lose, and of the three running backs I've written about so far, this Herbert is the least impacted by his competition. However, in an interview after the signing, Foreman said he plans to win the job. I think he'll be more of a true handcuff from a fantasy perspective, though.

Ronald Jones - Cowboys

• I almost chose not to write about Jones because he's not better than Malik Davis or Rico Dowdle, who the Cowboys kept and re-signed, respectively. Ourlads lists Jones as the backup to Pollard, who signed his franchise tag deal last week, but I need to see it to believe it, and Jones has not done anything on the field since 2020. Plus, the Cowboys are very likely to draft a running back in the NFL draft, whether it's Bijan Robinson in the first or the great group of second-tier running backs who will be available in the third and fourth rounds.

D'Ernest Johnson - Jaguars

• Johnson signed with the Jaguars, complicating the depth chart behind Travis Etienne. The Jaguars liked what JaMycal Hasty did for them last year behind Etienne, and they signed him to a two-year contract a few weeks ago before they added Johnson to a one-year deal. Johnson has just added depth for the Jaguars and did not land in a sport that his truthers wanted.

Elijah Moore - Browns

• Elijah Moore was finally traded. While it was not to the Packers, as I wrote about last week, it was to the Browns, where the picks the Jets acquired in the trade might become part of the package used to trade for Aaron Rodgers. Moore needed to leave New York for a second chance and see his dynasty value rise again. Deshaun Watson needs to shake the dust off of his terrible NFL return last season to make the Browns a fantasy productive offense. The Browns are doing what it takes to help him do that. Moore's attitude problems landed him in the doghouse with the Jets. I'm hopeful that feeling wanted again will help him commit to improving and playing up to the level I know he's capable of. This trade is a boom to his dynasty stock, which could boom even more once we see it on the field. Sadly, as a David Bell truther, Moore's signing buries Bell on the depth chart and tells us that the Browns thought they needed more than they got from Bell last season. Bell is not borderline droppable in most dynasty formats.

Mecole Hardman - Jets

• Hardman's signing with the Jets allowed them to trade Elijah Moore and one more move to help attract Aaron Rodgers to the team. I was never as high on Hardman as most dynasty analysts and managers, so this signing does not move the needle on how I value him. He's still fourth fiddle to Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Corey Davis. He'll be effective for the team as a gadget guy but not do anything to help dynasty teams or hurt the value of the rest of the Jets' receivers.

Isaiah McKenzie - Colts

• McKenzie held dynasty value for the last two years and was startable at times in deep leagues while being used effectively as the gadget guy for the Bills. I am sure the Colts signed him to do some of the same for them but on a far less productive offense. After leaving the Bills and signing with the Colts, I dropped McKenzie from my two rosters and moved him much lower in my dynasty rankings.

Mack Hollins -  Falcons

• The Falcons added Hollins last week, and he's very likely to become a starting receiver in three-wide sets. The Falcons have one of the least experienced wide receiver corps in the league and are a sure bet to add talent in the draft, but for now, it's Hollins' job to lose. In deep leagues, Hollins was startable at times last season and the WR-3 in Las Vegas and will be at times this season with the Falcons. 

Nelson Agholor - Baltimore

• Like the Falcons, the Ravens have one of the most inexperienced receiving corps in the league, making Agholor an instant starter in three-receiver sets. Unlike Hollins, however, I don't see Agholor as a startable receiver at any point this season. Whether Tyler Huntley or Lamar Jackson starts for the Ravens next season, they don't pass enough to make their WR-3 relevant, and they have two tight ends that are better than all their receivers except Rashod Bateman. The Ravens are who they are, and they can barely keep one receiver productive for fantasy.

D.J. Chark - Panthers

• The Panthers have muddied up their receiving corp by adding Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark to compete with Terrace Marshall, Laviska Shenault, and Shi Smith. After trading away D.J. Moore, the Panthers' wide receivers have been on a roller coaster of opportunity and dynasty value with each additional signing. Ourlads lists Chark, Thielen, and Marshall as the projected starters, but it is a guessing game in my eyes. Strangely, Thielen, the oldest player of the bunch, has the longest contract. This is a strange and messy situation and puts a wet blanket on the dynasty value of everyone until we see what roles are established with the Panthers and their new coaching staff and quarterback.

Dalton Schultz - Texans

• Like running backs, the tight ends in this free agency class got shafted and signed many one-year deals, except for Hayden Hurst. The Texans lost a lot of targets when they traded away Brandin Cooks. Their new additions of Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz should eat them up. That said, Schultz's moving from the Cowboys to the Texans is a major downgrade in his dynasty value, no matter which rookie quarterback the Texans draft. Dak Prescott and Schultz had a connection and played for an offense that elevated his fantasy production significantly. The Texans will not do that for Schultz. His dynasty stock falls because of this trade and, simultaneously, brings down the already fading dynasty stock of Brevin Jordan, who I thought would finally have a chance to break out this season but will not.

O.J. Howard and Austin Hooper - Raiders

• The Raiders lost two tight ends this offseason by trading away Darren Waller and not re-signing Foster Moreau after learning about his lymphoma condition. They promptly signed two new tight ends last week, Howard and Hooper. Howard is younger and the presumed starter, but he's failed to produce throughout his injury-ridden career, so Hooper could beat him out. From a dynasty perspective, Howard is the player to buy into one last time. I added him to a few rosters right after signing with the Raiders last week. I have not done so with Hooper. Nor have I seen other managers do so.

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