Tue Jan 18th 2022

Ten Lessons Learned This Season

As twelve NFL teams spent the week preparing for the first Super Wildcard weekend, I spent the week setting my playoff challenge fantasy lineups and taking an honest look at my dynasty season. It's something I do every year at this time. I look back at the NFL and dynasty season as a whole and take note of things to remember for future seasons. I also look at what things I did last season to improve or hurt my teams to learn from my successes and mistakes. There's plenty of both. After reflecting on the 2021 season the previous two weeks, here are ten things I want to remember.

Hold On To First Round Picks

• The most significant fact that I had to face this season is that most of my teams are getting older, and one reason is my willingness to trade away first-round picks. I still believe first-round picks are never as sure to hit as people think, especially mine, since I'm almost always a top-third team in my leagues. However, my continued trading away first-round picks are starting to add up on some of my teams. This year I did not trade away any first-round picks for the first time since I can remember. I am not saying that this will become a permanent strategy for me, but it's the path I need to take now on my teams with older players and second-round picks that have not hit. It will be fun to go into the 2022 rookie draft this season, knowing I have first-round picks in all of my leagues!

Bail On Teams Sooner

• I need to learn to bail on my teams sooner in future seasons. Because anything can happen in the fantasy playoffs, I'm prone to fight to the end until I know the last playoff spot is out of reach. This year, I noticed that by that point in the season, the trade deadline has passed in some league or worse, the top-tier teams have already made trades to improve their teams, making it even less likely for me to win a championship if I were to claim the last playoff seed. I did bail early with one team by selling great players to a team that ended up winning the championship. I got younger, got a first-round draft pick, and ended the season second-worst in that league, so I'll have the 1.2 pick in the rookie draft. I'm happy with that. In two other leagues, however, I waited too long and hurt my teams by doing so. In one of those leagues, the contending teams had already traded away their first and second-round picks, so I could not find a reasonable trade offer. In another, I traded away a second-round pick for Devonta Freeman when I thought I had a chance at the last playoff seed, but when it became apparent that I would not make it, I sold him back to a contender for Robert Woods. That worked out okay, but I wish I would have bailed sooner and not given up a second-round pick.

Buying Back Years

• Since most of my teams are getting older this season, I attempted to buy back years to get younger. Meaning, I traded away more productive older players to get younger players that I believe are on the rise. I think this worked out well for me, and it's something I'll attempt to do more in future seasons, especially if next season I see that type of trades paid off. I traded DeAndre Hopkins for Tee Higgins straight up during the midseason stretch when Higgins was not producing well. That trade bought back seven years and already looks like a winner. In the trade I wrote about above, I traded Travis Kelce, Tom Brady, and Cordarrelle Patterson for Pat Freiermuth, Dak Prescott, and a first-round pick. Freiermuth is nine years younger than Kelce, Prescott sixteen years younger than Brady, and my future first-round draft pick will be eight or nine years younger than Patterson. I gave Christian McCaffrey for Elijah Mitchell, Rashod Bateman, and a second-round pick (2.2). Mitchell is only two years younger than McCaffrey, but Bateman and the 2.2 will make my team much younger. Time will tell on these last two trades, but if they hit too, this is something I will aim to do more often.

Running Back By Committee Is The New Normal

• This season was one of the least productive by running backs in fantasy football in years. I believe it's because there are so many RBBC backfields in the NFL. This trend leads me to change my team-building strategy in one of two ways. One way to win is by making sure I have at least one bell-cow running back, even better if I can have two. Eight running backs averaged over 20 touches per game this season. Those are the best running backs to roster. Teams that rostered two of these backs played in many championships this season. The other strategy I'll employ if I don't have a 20-touch running back is to go wide-receiver heavy at the flex position and make sure one of my running backs is the passing downs back for their team. In PPR leagues, a roster like this can compete against the teams with the bell cow running backs. It's a little harder to do in half-PPR leagues, but it can be done. Running back by committee is here to stay for most teams, so I need to adjust my rosters accordingly.

Older Free Agent Running Backs Still Have It

• Two of the biggest surprises this season were Leonard Fournette and James Conner, finishing as the 7th and 5th highest scoring running backs even after missing time with injuries. It's hard to believe that Fournette continued his 2020 end-of-year Super Bowl tear all the way through this season. Tampa Bay signed him to a one-year contract this year, and now they have to decide whether the 26-year-old running back is worth signing to a multi-year contract. James Conner also signed a one-year contract and had the second-best season of his career in Arizona. The Cardinals, too, have to decide what to do with their 26-year-old running back. Running backs almost always lose their dynasty value at age 26 and after signing a second contract, but these two defy the odds and make it hard to determine their fantasy value. In future years, I want to be more open to the possibility that guys their age who sign free agent contracts on teams with unproven running backs to compete with could have breakout seasons and earn new contracts. Melvin Gordon, Rashad Penny, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel will be free agents to watch this offseason, along with Conner and Fournette.

Possession Wide Receivers Are Valuable

• Sometimes I get frustrated when my wide receivers don't score touchdowns, but having possession wide receivers on dynasty rosters is also very valuable. Eleven of this season's top 24 highest scoring wide receivers had six or fewer touchdown catches because they had either 90 or more catches or over 1000 yards receiving. I like having possession receivers in my lineups even if they don't score touchdowns because they're less dependent on touchdowns to help my team and provide a reliable production floor. Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are some of my most rostered players. I am pleased to have Amon-Ra St. Brown on many of my teams this year, and I am sad that I passed on Jaylen Waddle in all of my rookie drafts last year because I had him ranked much lower than other analysts. Waddle was my biggest miss of this 2021 rookie class. 

Third-year Breakouts Are Still A Thing

• A decade everyone talked about the third-year breakout trend was a thing, especially among wide receivers. I might be less so than a decade ago, but it still happens. It did with three players at three different positions this season. Deebo Samuel had a third-year breakout of all breakouts this season, finishing the season just behind Cooper Kupp in points scored. He showed promise at the end of his rookie season but took his play to an entirely new level in season three. Damien Harris had a third-year breakout in New England, finishing the season 13th among running backs by scoring fifteen touchdowns. He more than doubled his fantasy production in years one and two combined. Dawson Knox was a third-year breakout at tight end, finishing as the 8th highest scoring tight end after being the most targeted player in the red zone among all players at any position this season. Sometimes, it takes time for players to adjust to the NFL and play up to their talent level. These three certainly did this season. This offseason, I want to pay attention to players who may have a third-year breakout season next year, like A.J. Dillon, J.K. Dobbins, Jerry Jeudy, Laviska Shenault, and Adam Trautman.

Pocket Passers Are Underrated

• For the last few years, running quarterbacks were thought to have greater dynasty value than pocket passers because of their "cheat code" racking up fantasy points on the ground. This year, seven of the top twelve highest scoring quarterbacks did not run for more than 300 yards, and 17 of the top 24 did not. Packet passers are underrated, and I do not feel the need to have a cheat-code quarterback on my rosters. I only have two running quarterbacks on my rosters, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, and Herbert barely counts because he only ran for 302 yards and plays more like a pocket passer. For a long time, I believed that cheat-code quarterbacks are overrated and more likely to get injured like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray did this season. I am perfectly content to fill my roster with pocket passers and will continue doing so.

Hidden Value In Charting Snap Counts, Targets, and Touches

• Three of the statistics that I paid more attention to this season were snaps, targets, and touches. On Monday mornings, I would go to lineups.com to quickly view trends on each team. The snap, target, and touch trends were most helpful in determining which players were ascending and descending in usage. As the season carried on, I could spot reflection points on many teams when one positional player surpassed another player on their team. Being ahead of the curve on these stats allows me to buy low or sell high on players, and it helped me make start/sit decisions in DFS lineups, deep dynasty leagues. I also used knowledge attained by viewing these stats each week to find players on the waiver wire before they broke out, even if they were back-of-the-roster kind of guys. For instance, I picked up the following players during the season after seeing their snaps, targets, and touches increase: Ashton Dulin, Josh Reynolds, and Brevin Jordon. These stats give me a slight edge on my league-mates, so I'll maintain this Monday morning data-dive every season.

Pay More Attention To Player Contracts

• This year, I often visited spotrac.com to check player contracts because it's valuable information in a dynasty. I always look at player contracts when making a trade or responding to a trade offer, but I am sure that most managers do not. A player's contract can be the difference between accepting or rejecting trades. It can also be a sneaky way to offer trades by offering to trade someone whom you know is in the final year of their contract. It's one small way to get a little more security with a player locked into a roster for a few years. That is unless you're eager to get a player who could benefit from entering free agency. Players' contracts mean a lot in dynasty leagues, so I like to know the contract status of all of the players on my rosters. I'll continue to use Spotrac in my dynasty leagues to stay on top of my players' contracts.

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