Tue Jan 23rd 2024

Reranking the 2023 Rookie Class

The first thing I do after the dynasty season ends is rerank the rookie class. I note where I was right and where I was wrong on my evaluation of the class eight months after rookie drafts last May. This season, there were a few dramatic changes in the rankings, more than I've ever seen before. Here are the changes I've made in my superflex rookie rankings from May 2023 to January 2024.

1. C.J. Stroud (from #2 to #1)

• I had Bijan Robinson ranked ahead of Stroud in May, but after his monster rookie season Stroud has moved up to number one. He finished the season as a top-ten quarterback and will only improve. I drafted him in one league and traded Josh Allen for Stroud and a first-round pick in another. He's moved all the way up to my #4 ranked dynasty quarterback. The best is yet to come for Stroud and the Texans' offense.

2. Bijan Robinson (from #1 to #2)

• Bijan produced far less than dynasty managers expected last season but was still a top-ten running back while sharing way too much time with Tyler Allgeier. Coach Smith is gone, and there's every reason to believe the new coach will feature Robinson more than Smith did. The offense could be even better if they sign or draft a quarterback. He's still the top running back in this class and would be the top pick in a one-quarterback league. He's still my top-ranked dynasty running back.

3. Jahmyr Gibbs (from #4 to #3)

• Last May, I ranked Bryce Young ahead of Gibbs in my supeflex rankings, but now Young has moved all the way down to #14 and Gibbs has moved to #3. Gibbs lost a lot of work to David Montgomery, but by the end of the season, he was given a more steady workload. Detroit knows what they got in Gibbs, and they use his skills perfectly. Surprisingly, Gibbs struggled with dropped passes this season. Once he cleans that up, he'll produce even more. He's my second-ranked running back in dynasty.

4. Puka Nacua (from #35 to #4)

• Last May, I was higher on Nacua than almost any dynasty manager or analyst, which is why he's on five of my nine dynasty teams. I drafted him in the third round of those drafts and now would draft him ahead of every wide receiver in this class. What an unbelievable rise from 35th to 4th. He was a monster this season, surpassing historic rookie receiving records. He's now my 8th-ranked wide receiver in dynasty after finishing his rookie season as the 4th highest-scoring fantasy receiver in 2023.

5. Tank Dell (from #26 to #5)

• This ranking might be the first controversial one, but I've moved Dell all the way up to fifth in this class after finishing tenth in the league in average points per game this season. His years linked to C.J. Stroud and the early connection they formed on the field make me confident enough to take him ahead of the other receivers drafted ahead of him in the NFL and rookie drafts. I wish we could have seen him play out the entire season. His injury was a fluke, and he'll be back to make magic again next year. He's now my 16th-ranked dynasty wide receiver.

6. Sam LaPorta (from #14 to #6)

• LaPorta has arguably the best season by any rookie tight end. He finished his rookie season as the highest-scoring fantasy tight end and is clearly the top-ranked tight end in dynasty. In this class, he and several other tight ends have dismantled the widely held belief that tight ends take a few years to become productive in fantasy. What an incredible season he had.

7. Anthony Richardson (from #9 to #7)

• Though his sample size was very small, Richardson did enough to prove me wrong and cause me to move him up in my rankings. I was lower on Richardson than almost every dynasty manager and analyst. I did not think his skills would translate to the NFL. I've not compared my rankings to others, but I bet I am still lower on him than most analysts who would draft him much higher in superflex leagues. My doubts and his sample size keep me more cautious than most analysts, even though I moved him to seventh in this class. He's moved to 12th in my dynasty quarterback rankings.

8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (from #5 to #8)

• JSN was the consensus top wide receiver pick in last year's class, but he's moved down to 3rd in this class as I rank them today. He was blocked by two talented veteran receivers, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, who both produced more than him this season, but that will change. The Seahawks have a potential out in Lockett's contract this year, and even if they keep him, he'll play less than JSN next year after turning 32 years old. Although he's moved down a few spots, JSN's pedigree and draft capital keep him a first-round rookie pick. He's my 19th-ranked dynasty wide receiver.

9. Jordan Addison (from #6 to #9)

• Addison may have benefitted from Justin Jefferson's extended stay on the IR, but he made the most of his opportunity and finished as a top-24 wide receiver this season. You could also argue that Kirk Cousin's season-ending injury made him less productive than he could have been. He'll never become the team's WR-1, but he will consistently produce top-24 fantasy numbers. He's my 20th-ranked dynasty wide receiver.

10. Zay Flowers (from #7 to #10)

• Flowers immediately made an impact in Baltimore, but his fantasy production was up and down for most of the season. He ended his rookie season on a hot streak and has become the team's clear WR-1, even though he may not be targeted as often as Baltimore's tight ends. His role in the offense will increase next year, too. He's my 22nd-ranked dynasty wide receiver.

11. Rashee Rice (from #21 to #11)

• Rice is one of the top risers as I rerank the class today. I dinged him in my rookie rankings in May because Kansas City has drafted or traded for receivers for years and has never found a legit WR-1. Plus, they spread the ball around so much anyway, and Travis Kelce is their leading target-getter. At the beginning of this season, it looked like I was right, and the Chiefs did much of the same, but by the end of the season, Rice established himself as their go-to receiver. Rice's dynasty value will soar even higher if he develops this role while Kelce fades away or retires. Currently, he is my 27th-ranked dynasty receiver.

12. De'Von Achane (from #11 to #12)

• I was right and wrong on Achane. I had him ranked lower than most managers and analysts because I feared he did not have the size to become an every-down back. I was right on that point, as he battled injuries and split carries with Raheem Mostert all season. I was wrong, however, about how explosive he could be when he was healthy and getting some of the workload. He did more with fewer touches than I thought was imaginable. He moved down in my rankings here, but only because some rookie receivers moved ahead of him. He moved ahead of Zach Charbonnet, whom I previously had ranked ahead of him and drafted ahead of him three different times. Achane is now my 6th-ranked dynasty running back.

13. Jayden Reed (from #22 to #13)

• If Reed didn't battle injuries throughout the season, he might be ranked even higher than this. He finished the season 24th in average points per game. The Packers have a room full of young wide receivers, and all of them have played well this season. Reed's role in the slot and his use on gadget plays protect him from the competition for starting roles. The Packers offense is young and one of the best in the league. Reed's best days are ahead of him. He's my 32nd-ranked dynasty wide receiver.

14. Bryce Young (from #3 to #14)

• Young's poor play this season caused me to bump him back to the second round in my postseason rookie rankings. His draft capital insists that he will start for the team next year and get a second chance with a new coaching staff, but first-round quarterbacks fail all the time. He could be one of them. He'd be out of my top 24 in one-quarterback leagues, but in superflex leagues, I'd take a shot at him here. He's my 23rd-ranked quarterback in dynasty.

15. Tajae Spears (from #19 to #15)

• Spears was productive in his limited role behind Derrick Henry, but the Titans are definitely moving on from Henry next season, leaving the backfield for Spears to take. He played in all 16 games and never battled an injury. The Titans will bring someone in to pair with him, but the roles will be reversed next year. He's the team's new RB-1. Spears is my 18th-ranked dynasty running back.

16. Zach Charbonnet (from #10 to #16)

• Charbonnet did not take over the passing and goal-line roles as I expected, and Kenneth Walker played better than I expected. Charbonnet will still have a role on the team next year with a new coaching staff that may like his skills better than Walker's. Most teams have a running back committee these days, so Charbonnet still has value in dynasty, but it's different than the first-round value I believed in May. I'm still hopeful for Charbonnet and have him as my 22nd-ranked running back in dynasty.

17. Will Levis

• Levis had a few shining moments when he got to start for the Titans, but he didn't do enough to prove that he's the future in Tennessee. In a superflex league, he's still a quarterback worth drafting in the second round. I'm confident that he will begin the season as their starter next season, but I'm not confident that he can keep the job for years to come. He's my 26th-ranked dynasty quarterback.

18. Dalton Kincaid (from #13 to #18)

• Kincaid's production this year was very hit-and-miss, but he had enough great games to cause me to rank him as the second-ranked tight end in this class. He could have been ranked higher if he did enough to keep Dawson Knox off the field. Still, Josh Allen targeted him a lot, and the team has a clear plan for his role in the passing game. He had a great rookie season. He's my 11th-ranked dynasty tight end.

19. Michael Mayer (from #12 to #19)

• I'm still a Mayer truther, even though I moved him down my rankings at the end of this season. He immediately saw plenty of playtime but was rarely involved in the passing game. He was showing improvement in the last five games of the season before he landed on IR. That's enough for me to keep my prior hope alive. He'll improve significantly next year. He's my 12th-ranked dynasty tight end.

20. Josh Downs (from #18 to #20)

• Downs ran hot at the start of the season but petered out near the end of the season, but that was still enough to keep him ranked about the same as I ranked him last May. Michael Pittman is a free agent this year and will be one of the most coveted receivers on the market. Downs is suited to be a WR-2 in the NFL, so the Colts would be wise to re-sign Pittman. We didn't get to see much of Anthony Richardson and Downs playing together either, which is another factor keeping Downs' dynasty value up in the air. For now, he's my 35th-ranked wide receiver in dynasty.

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