Tue Jul 9th 2024

Running Back Training-Camp Battles

NFL training camps start in two weeks. Practice reports from beat writers and preseason games will give us our best clues as to who will win positional battles. In some cases, we know which running back will get the bulk of their teams' touches next year. In other cases, the battle for the lead back will be determined during training camp.

In this article, I discuss the running back training camp battles I will follow most closely.

Cincinnati

• The Bengals let Joe Mixon go in free agency, and he signed with Houston. His departure leaves 309 touches to distribute to Chase Brown and Zack Moss. Brown, the Bengals' second-year back, did not get much playing time in his rookie season until the very end of the season. He had a few explosive plays that got his dynasty managers hopeful for more opportunities next year, especially after Joe Mixon signed with Houston. However, the Bengals quickly signed Zack Moss to compete for the starting role. Moss had a surprisingly strong stretch last season in Indianapolis when filling in for Jonathan Taylor, and now he has a chance to become an RB-1 for the first time in his career. The Bengals are a pass-heavy team, and most of their runs come from the shotgun formation. Analytics and film confirm that Moss is excellent pass protection and when running from the shotgun formation, which is why the Bengals signed him. There's a lot more film on Moss, who was drafted in 2020, compared to Brown, who has just 58 touches in his rookie season. I expect Moss, given his experience, to have the edge in training camp. Brown will have to outplay Moss in training camp and preseason games to take the lead role. It will be a tight battle to watch, though. I only have one share of Brown and no shares of Moss, so the battle won't affect my teams much, but it will be fun to see how the battle plays out.  One of the two will be productive for dynasty managers in the high-scoring Bengals offense.

Pittsburgh

• The Steelers hired Arthur Smith as their new offensive coordinator. He's a run-first coach, so the Steelers' running backs will get a heavy load of carries. It's the distribution that dynasty managers are curious about. The Steelers did not pick up the option year in Najee Harris's contract, making this the last year of his contract, whereas Jaylen Warren has two years left. Warren cut into Harris's playtime more than ever before last season. Harris had 255 carries while Warren had 149, but Warren was more involved in the passing game with 61 receptions than Harris's 29.  As a result, Warren scored just 15 fewer fantasy points in half-PPR leagues. Could this season be the one when Warren finally surpasses Harris? I think so. Warren looked better in every way last season. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry compared to Harris's 4.0. He was just unlucky in the touchdown department, scoring four times compared to Harris's eight. Dynasty managers were frustrated by coach Smith's giving Tyler Allgeier 186 carries last season while giving Bijan Robinson 214. He could deploy his new backfield similarly while giving Warren the more fantasy-productive touches on passing downs. I expect this to be a 50/50 backfield, with Warren more productive for dynasty managers and posed to become the team's RB-1 in 2025.

Tennessee

• Tennessee finally parted ways with Derrick Henry, leaving a massive 280 carries for Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard to divvy up this year. Unlike Chase Brown, Spears was involved in the offense immediately as a rookie, with 100 carries and 52 receptions, resulting in 127 fantasy points. Spears looked great, too. He was quick and explosive in the running and passing game. His style of play is ironically very similar to Tony Pollard, who the Titans signed to compete with Spears. Coaches have already spoken about how they can each do the same things well. Their similarities mean that they will likely not have distinct roles in the offense. I imagine more of a 50/50 split with a hot-hand approach. I'd favor Spears in that scenario because Spears is younger, and Pollard lost a step last season. It will be interesting to see how Pollard looks on a new team with a new scheme. With Callahan as the new coach and his father as the offensive line coach, the Titans can strengthen their traditionally strong run game. I expect Spears to benefit the most, but I'll watch this battle closely in training camp.

Denver

• Denver's backfield battle is one of the most intriguing to watch during training camp. They'll enter camp with five backs battling for roles, and they have a coach with a history of using multiple backs. Javonte Williams is the presumed front-runner and will be healthier after two years of being removed from knee surgery.  He did not look good last year with the leading role, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Samaje Perine had limited touches in the run game but was more effective when he did carry the ball, and he averaged 9.1 yards per catch on his 50 receptions. Jaleel McLaughlin was the surprise rookie UDFA last year who had a few splash plays and big games early in the season but was less involved and productive as the season continued. The Broncos drafted a power back in Audric Estime and signed another UDFA in Blake Watson, indicating that the team is not pleased with their running back room. The biggest thing to watch in training camp is the health and effectiveness of Williams. If he can't improve his play from last year, the door for a significant role opens wide for their first and second-year players. The Broncos led the league in passes to running backs, which is where McLaughlin and Watson can contribute. They were the fourth-worst team in short-yardage success, which is where Estime can succeed.  With so much youth in their running back room, Perine is a prime candidate to get cut, even though he was their most statistically productive back last season. Peyton is pretty honest with reports, and reporters have proven truthful in recent years at training camp, so I'll follow the news closely to see who is getting the buzz at Denver's training camp. I sold my only share of Williams two years ago and drafted Estime in four rookie drafts so far, so I know what I hope happens in Denver. 

LA Chargers

• The Chargers are another backfield worth monitoring closely with Gus Edwards as their presumed starter, J.K. Dobbins trying to bounce back from his second season-ending injury, and rookie Kimani Vidal, who is everyone's late-round target in rookie drafts. We expect the Chargers to focus their offense around the run game, so the back that holds off the others as the RB-1 will get a lot of opportunities next year. Vidal was a sixth-round pick, so the team does not have much invested in him. Still, he has a clear path to touches if Dobbins is not healthy and Edwards gets banged up.  He's already battling an undisclosed injury, and it's uncertain if he will be ready for training camp. If Dobbins returned from his injury, he could be a come-back player of the year candidate in this offense, but dynasty managers have hoped for that before and have been disappointed.  Ourlads currently list Dobbins as the RB-1, but I believe it's Edwards' job to lose, even at his age. All three running backs have relatively low dynasty value, but one will shoot up the rankings if they earn the lead role. However, I expect the Chargers to have a running back-by-committee approach all season. Still, I'll watch carefully during training camp to see if I'm wrong.

Dallas

• As a Cowboy fan, I was not pleased with the Cowboys' offseason moves or lack thereof. They let Tony Pollard go to Tennessee and then didn't sign any of the best free-agent running backs, even though there were more good running backs available than I ever remember. All they did was bring Ezekiel Elliot back after all the top-tier free agents signed with other teams. They also signed Royce Freeman. By all appearances, Zeke and Rico Dowdle will be the Cowboys' one-two punch, with Royce Freeman, Malik Davis, and Deuce Vaughn fighting for less meaningful roles. Dowdle had seven carries in 2020 and did not touch the ball again until last year in 2023 when he had 89 carries for 361 yards. He's a complete unknown, but he will have a significant role with the Cowboys, who can't give Zeke all the carries at his age and with all his wear and tear over the years. The Cowboys are a top candidate to sign another back or make a minor trade for one, but they've not done so yet. Dynasty managers with Zeke will get a little more juice out of the squeeze, given his role on the goal line. Managers with Dowdle on their rosters may have found a hidden gem if the unproven back off the practice squad turns into an RB-1 or RB-2 on the high-scoring Cowboys offense.

Washington

• In Washington, I want to see if Austin Ekeler has anything left after his poor play last season. His yards per carry dropped to 3.5 last season after averaging 4.5 yards per carry throughout his six years before that. I expect Brian Robinson to take the leading role on first and second downs and Ekeler to be more involved in the passing game, but I want to listen to reports and watch to see if he still has any juice left. Robinson improved a lot in his second season and can hold Ekeler off entirely if he's lost step. Last week, I wrote about how Chris Rodriguez is a player I've decided to drop from my rosters, but I've kept him on my watch list in case Ekeler has hit the cliff. I'd quickly add him to my teams if he has.

Minnesota

• The Vikings signed their divisional rival, Aaron Jones, after letting Alexander Mattison sign with the Raiders. They have Ty Chandler, who was very productive at the end of last season when he became their lead back, surpassing Mattison. The Vikings like what they saw from Chandler and believe he and Jones can carry the load next year. I'm not convinced that Aaron Jones is better than Ty Chandler at this stage of their careers. Last season was Jones' least productive year since his rookie year.  He was injured often and was terribly inconsistent until he caught fire the five games of the season, including the playoff games. His fantastic end-of-the-season and playoff run made the Vikings willing to sign the 29-year-old to a one-year contract. They have the 26-year-old Chandler signed through 2025. This battle will be a true competition for the lead role during training camp.

Seattle

• I'm biased based on the four shares of Charbonnet I have, but I hope the new coaching staff in Seattle gives him a chance to compete for the RB-1 role ahead of Walker. I'm sure Walker will maintain his lead role in training camp, but I hope Charbonnet can play well enough to convince the coaches that he needs a heavier role this season. Walker had twice as many carries last season. I expect more of a 60/40 split this season if Charbonnet picks up the new offense well and improves as a pass protector.  I don't think this is a battle for the RB-1 role, but it is a battle for more playing time.

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