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Thu Nov 22nd 2018

Stock Report Week #12

Whose Rising and Falling

These are the players who have made the largest rises and largest falls in my rankings this week.

Stock Rising

Quarterback

  1. Lamar Jackson (Baltimore): I moved him up to my QB 24.  He made the most of his first start, though it was very unconventional.  He still needs to grow as a passer, but his legs can make him a startable fantasy QB.  I still have him below three of the other rookies (Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold), but I did move him ahead of Josh Allen and many of the starting veteran QBs.  I don't own him on any of my teams because I prefer pure passers.  I suspect defenses will figure him out and make things a lot tougher on him.  I don't think he will ever become a top 12 dynasty QB.

Running Backs

  1. Phillip Lindsay (Denver): I moved him up to my RB 18.  The guy is just explosive.  He is a big play waiting to happen, and Denver has done a great job using him.  He's little, but he's not the RB that is getting injured in Denver.  Royce Freeman is that guy.  I believe he has won the job long-term.  In the future he will split carries with Freeman, but he will get more touches than Freeman every year.  He's just too good of a weapon to take off the field.  My buddy and I co-manage a team in a salaray cap league (Reality Sports Online), and we just exercised our one contract extention on him, locking him up on our team for the next 4 years at $17,000,000 a year.
  2. Aaron Jones (Green Bay): I moved him up to my RB 19.  I guess Mike McCarthy and I were the only two people who believed in Jamaal Williams more than Jones.  Now we both admit we were wrong.  He has looked incredible since he was finally made the lead back in Green Bay.  There is no doubt about it.  He looks like he could be one of those guys that carries dynasty teams to championships this year, much like Alvin Kamara did when he came on strong at the end of last year. I was wrong about him.
  3. Matt Breida (San Francisco): I moved him up to my RB 24.  I may have been wrong about Jones, but I was right about Breida.  I have always had him ranked higher than everyone else, and now I moved him up even more.  Size and injuries are a concern for him, but his toughness is not.  He plays through injuries and plays well.  He has a chance to earn a greater long-term role in San Francisco if he keeps playing so well these last few weeks of the season.  He may split time with McKinnon next year, but he could out touch him in the future.  I have McKinnon ranked 32, so you know I believe Breida is better than him.

Wide Receivers

  1. Tre'Quan Smith (New Orleans): I moved him up to my WR 35.  After Brees hit Smith for a touchdown last week, he told Smith, "I trust you."  I do too.  This is another guy that I was higher on than most people in last year's rookie draft.  I had him as the 8th ranked WR and 17th ranked player overall.  I loved his ability to catch contested balls and that he had incredible hands. We've seen these qualities in the NFL already too. He's been a bit boom or bust this season, and that may continue going forward given the number of weapons  in New Orleans.  That said, they score a lot, so getting a small piece of the action is pretty valuable in New Orleans.

Tight Ends

  1. Chris Herndon (NY Jets): I moved him up to my TE 19. I think Herdon is about to break out.  He's been getting more snaps (64% the last two weeks) and more targets (4 the last two weeks).  He has won the job in New York.  His athleticism and speed make him a tough guy to cover.  He's not an every week starter yet, but I believe he will be soon.
  2. Gereald Everett (LA Rams): I moved him up to my TE 23.  McVay drafted him to be the next Jordan Reed.  He sat on our dynasty rosters for years while we waited for him to break out.  He finally has the last few weeks.  He awesome second TD reception on Monday night highlighted the skills he has.  Sadly, in the leagues where I owned him, I got impatient and dropped him.  I am not too upset about that because I still have my doubts about him every becoming a every week starter on our dynasty teams. The Rams have too many weapons, and I don't think the TE position is one that they will highlight often.

Stock Falling

Running Backs

  1. Royce Freeman (Denver): I moved him down to my RB 26.  I simply think Phillip Lindsay is better than him.  Sure, he could continue to be their goaline back, but I'd rather have the guy (Lindsay) who scores from 40 yards out and catches all of the passes.  I think he'll just have a complimentary role long-term in Denver.
  2. Alex Collins (Baltimore): I moved him down to my RB 41.  Baltimore (and fantasy owners like myself) got tired of seeing him leaving yards on the table.  He tries to bounce things outside and make the big play instead of hitting the hole and taking what is there.  It seems like they clearly have moved on to the undrafted free agent, Gus Edwards.  I am not sure he is the answer in Baltimore either.  I susbect they will draft and RB next year.

Wide Receivers

  1. Michael Crabtree (Baltimore): I moved him down to my WR 45.  The move to Lamar Jackson at QB hurts the dynasty stock of all of the WRs in Baltimore.  Crabtree, being the oldest, is hurt the worst.  Jackson seems way more comfortable targeting Sneed and a slot WR, and less able to hit the outside WRs.  Crabtree's greatest strength was being a redzone target, but Jackson is more likely to run than pass in the redzone.
  2. Golden Tate (Philadelphia): I moved him down to my WR 49.  Philadelphia admited this week that they are having a hard time finding a fit for Tate in their offesne.  That's not what you want to hear.  This was a maddening trade for dynasty owners of Tate.  He was such a perfect WR-3 to have on our teams when he played for Detroit.  Now he has to sit on our benches until Philadelphia find out how to use him.

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