Tue May 14th 2024

Grading My FFPC Rookie Draft

My first rookie draft of the season was in my FFPC league. I'm sure some of my followers are unfamiliar with FFPC dynasty leagues. I consider them more of a hybrid between keeper and dynasty leagues because in FFPC leagues, you roster just 22 players during the season and have to cut back to 16 players, including a kicker and defense, so only 14 skilled players are rostered going into rookie drafts.

I prefer a different format, but I enjoy the challenge. Many highly competitive dynasty managers play in these leagues, so I joined a start-up draft six years ago to try this format and compete among the best. It takes a different mindset than traditional dynasty leagues, and I've had to adjust my strategies accordingly. I'm still learning the best strategy in this format, but I'm getting sharper and rebuilding my team.

Given the thin rosters, depth and developing talent are less critical than in regular dynasty leagues. Players need to break out quickly, or they will get dropped. Teams can't hold players in hopes that they will break out. Rookies and young players need to break out quickly. As a result, running backs are drafted earlier in these leagues compared to other dynasty leagues since they usually break out faster, or at least you know if they will break out or not more quickly.

They are also traditionally one-quarterback leagues, though the FFPC has since started superflex dynasty leagues. I joined a one-quarterback league. They are also tight-end premium leagues, with 1.5 PPR for tight ends.

The starting rosters include one quarterback, two running backs, two receivers, one tight end, and two flex spots, plus a kicker and defense. That's ten starters and just twelve players on the bench.

Given the thin rosters, many veterans are also available in the rookie drafts, and they get drafted early compared to regular dynasty drafts. Most teams draft veterans in the third round. For instance, J.K. Dobbins and Trevor Lawrence were drafted in the second round of this draft.

This format is less familiar to me, and I will admit that I've struggled to build a contender. I made the playoffs the first three years after the start-up draft but have missed the playoffs and become one of the worst teams in the league in the last two seasons.

Two years ago, I missed out on the running backs and drafted Drake London at 1.4. Last season, I had the 1.2 and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs and C.J. Stroud at 2.2. Those seemed like good building blocks, but I mistakenly traded my 2024 first and second-round picks for Zach Charbonnet and Elijah Moore. I had Charbonnet as my 10th-ranked rookie last season, so I felt it was fair to give up a 2024 1st for him, and Elijah Moore's training camp hype made me think he was worth giving up a 2nd-round pick.

I set myself back quite a bit with that trade. Charbonnet is still on my team, and my hopes for him are still high, but Moore is no longer on my team, making that a big miss. I accumulated extra third and fourth-round picks with the trades I made, so they gave me a few more late options in this draft, but I missed out on the best players in this class. Still, I like the players I drafted and feel I am set up for a slight rebound this year, especially if Drake London becomes a top-12 wide receiver with Kirk Cousins, my second and third-year receivers build upon their rookie years, and rookie or two hits, especially at running back.

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Ray Davis (3.2)

• I will draft a lot of Ray Davis, given that I have him ranked 20th in my superflex rankings. I was happy to draft him 26th in this draft, just before J.J. McCarthy and Drake Maye were drafted in this one-quarterback league. My team was set at quarterback with Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud, so I was happy to pass on quarterbacks to draft Davis at my position of need. Over the last few years, the Bills have tried to identify and add a bigger short yardage back. Last year, they added Damian Harris, Latavious Murray, and Leonard Fournette, but none fit the desired role. Davis is the youngest player they've drafted to fill that role. They don't trust James Cook for a full role and the red-zone role, which opens the door to Davis. He was a super productive back with each of his three collegiate teams. I'm confident he can adjust to the NFL quickly and contribute immediately, which is most important in a league like this.

Javon Baker (3.9)

• Baker is one of "my guys" in this year's draft. I love that he's taking stalk of the wide receivers drafted ahead of him and aiming to prove himself better than them. I love his open spot on the roster and his opportunity to become the WR-1 in New England with their new franchise quarterback, Drake Maye. He's more versatile than Demario Douglas and Ja'Lynn Polk, who was drafted ahead of him in this year's class. He's better downfield, which is where Maye liked the throw most in college. The Patriot's offensive system is a mystery, and they spoke loudest by drafting Polk in the second round, but I still believe Baker is a better steal in the NFL draft and dynasty drafts. In a thin league like this, I'm confident that Baker, though a 4th-round NFL pick, will get a chance to play immediately.

Audric Estime (3.10)

• I traded way 4.2 and 4.9 to move up to draft Estime. He's my 29th-ranked player, so I was happy to draft him with the 34th pick. My team is weak at running back and needs backups with a chance to take over lead roles. I now have three with Zack Cahrbonnet, Ray Daivs, and Audric Estime. I need one of them to hit or all of them to get stretches of games as the starter due to injuries to the running backs ahead of them in their depth charts. Coach Peyton is not pleased with the lack of production from Javonte Williams last year and is looking for more of a between-the-tackles bruising back like Estime. The selection of Estime may signal that the Broncos are ready to release Samaje Perine, giving Estime a quicker opportunity to play. Every year, a player's college production is forgotten after a bad Combine performance. This year, I think that player is Estime.

Ty Chandler (4.3)

• I hoped to draft Jalen McMillan with this pick, but he was drafted the pick ahead of me. He was the last rookie I was willing to draft before adding veterans to my roster. I chose to add Chandler to my team, assuming he's the RB-2 behind the oft-injured Aaron Jones in Minnesota. Bucky Irving and Will Shipley were drafted ahead of me, and Devontez Walker and Ja'Tavion Sanders were drafted after me. I considered drafting Sanders, but I am three-deep with strong tight ends in this league. I don't think Irving, Shipley, or Walker will have enough opportunities to break out quickly, as is needed in a thin league like this. Chandler will likely get spot starts for me this season and help my team; even if he is not a player, I will roster beyond this season. While rebuilding, I did not see any rookies who could help my rebuilding efforts, so I opted for a player who could help me compete this season. Six of the twelve picks in the fourth round of this draft were veterans instead of rookies.

Hunter Henry (5.2)

• In a tight-end premium league, I was excited to have Henry fall to me this late in the draft. I have three quality tight ends on my roster and often start two of them in my lineups. Even so, I wanted to add Henry as another tight end in hopes that my strength at tight end may lead to future trades in this tight-end premium league. As I stated, the Patriots' offense is a mystery with their new coaching staff this year. Still, Henry is the TE-1 with no competition behind him, like he had last season with Jonnu Smith, who had more targets and reception than Henry. Smith's departure leaves 70 targets and 50 receptions open for Henry, who will soak up those targets as the most experienced pass catcher on their offense. Unlike Chandler, Henry is a player who could become a keeper on my team, especially if I can trade one of my other tight ends next season.

Adam Thielen (6.2)

• As old as he is, I added Thielen to my team here in hopes that he can have some of the early-season magic that he did last season with Bryce Young. He's no longer Young's primary target since the Panthers traded for Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette. Still, his slot role is solidified, and defenses will focus less on him this season. I expect Thielen to start for my team at times this season and fill in some gaps while my young wide receivers develop. If I'm wrong and he falls off a cliff this season, he will be one of the first players I cut. He's a player I was glad to add to my roster this late in the draft to see if he can help me in any way to start the season.

Brenden Rice (7.2)

• Instead of drafting another veteran player with my last pick, I decided to take a chance on Rice since the Chargers have a new coaching staff and a volatile wide receiver depth chart. They drafted Ladd McConkey and added free agent D.J. Chark, but the depth chart is unsettled. In a thin league like this, I won't have time to hold Rice to see if he develops into a starter, but I can wait out the early part of the season to see what he can do. He was my 46th-ranked rookie, and I drafted him here with the 74th draft pick. He's a much more valuable late-round pick in traditional dynasty leagues, but I still felt like I drafted a great prospect with an unsettled depth chart with my last pick. Plus, I love his bloodlines as the son of Jerry Rice.

My Team

Quarterbacks

• C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott

Running Backs

• Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaylen Warren, Zach Charbonnet, Ray Davis, Audric Estime, Ty Chandler, Miles Sanders

Wide Receivers

• Drake London, Tank Dell, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Jahan Dotson, Javon Baker, Adam Thielen, Brenden Rice

Tight Ends

• David Njoku, Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry

Team Assessment

While I regret trading away my first and second-round picks last year, I'm pleased with how my team is rebuilding. I pledge not to trade away draft picks in next year's class and will aim to add draft picks instead of trading away them, as I did the year before.

Adding Jahmyr Gibbs (1.2) and C.J. Stroud (1.10) in last year's draft helped set up my team for the future. Prescott and Stroud are solid at quarterback, and Gibbs is my RB-1 of the future.

My biggest need is to find a consistent starting RB-2 and a player worth flexing weekly. Jaylen Warren was a great RB-2 last season in this PPR league, and I am hopeful for his future, especially after Pittsburgh declined to pick up Najee Harris's fifth-year option. I need Charbonnet, Davis, or Estime to earn a leading role. I'm hopeful that one of them can or that I can stream running backs when their starter is injured.

Two years ago, I drafted Drake London at 1.4, but his production has been limited by terrible quarterback play. With Kirk Cousins in Atlanta and a new coaching staff, I expect London to see his production and dynasty value skyrocket this season. If Jahan Dotson, my second-round pick in 2022 with London, can bounce back with better quarterback play, I'll be in an even better position to succeed. I drafted Doubs in that year's draft, too. He's been far from consistent but has the potential to become Jordan Love's WR-1. He's already his favorite red-zone target. I need one or more of London, Dotson, and Doubs to have third-year breakouts.

I drafted Reed and Dell last season, and I need one of them to become a reliable weekly starter. I am sure one of them will. They each had fantastic games last season despite their inconsistent production. They each have plenty of competition on their depth charts, so they will likely never become the WR-1 on their teams, but they can become reliable starters in my flex position if they establish WR-2 roles.

As for the tight end position, I'm older, but I am less concerned with age at the tight end position. I'm hopeful that the quarterback and offensive coordinator change in Pittsburgh will result in Freiermuth's taking on a more prominent role. I hope Njoku can build upon his top-12 season last year and keep his starting role. Goedert has been more productive when one of the Eagles' starting receivers is injured, but he can become more reliable if the Eagles try to limit Jalen Hurts in the running game. In a tight-end premium league, my tight ends are among the best in the league. I hope to trade one or two of them this year when one or more dynasty teams' starters go down to injuries.

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